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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Suvorovo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
1 – 1
Suvorovo
Suvorovo
11/11/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 12Stadion Dunav (Ruse (Rousse))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse16%
×Draw21%
Suvorovo63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.89
Suvorovo
1.98

Suvorovo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Suvorovo
1.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Suvorovo
0.90

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Suvorovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Suvorovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
37%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Suvorovo
79%
Draw or Suvorovo
84%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
5%
Suvorovo wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
6%
Suvorovo 1+ goals
86%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
59%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
21%
Suvorovo (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Suvorovo away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Suvorovo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Suvorovo attack 1.85 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
16%
level
21%
Suvorovo scores more
63%

Suvorovo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv Ruse 1 – 1 Suvorovo

Lokomotiv Ruse and Suvorovo drew 1-1 in Third League - Northeast on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Dunav (Ruse (Rousse)).