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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
CANC
00:00
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
10/31/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 11Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse17%
×Draw22%
Septemvri Tervel60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Septemvri Tervel
1.85

Septemvri Tervel creates 110% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
40%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Septemvri Tervel
78%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
83%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
6%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
6%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
84%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
55%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
23%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
17%
level
22%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
60%

Septemvri Tervel at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv Ruse host Septemvri Tervel

October 31, 2019: Lokomotiv Ruse take on Septemvri Tervel in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv Ruse host Septemvri Tervel at Stadion Dunav.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.