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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
12/2/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 9Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse15%
×Draw20%
Ludogorets III65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.89
Ludogorets III
2.08

Ludogorets III creates 134% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
35%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Ludogorets III
80%
Draw or Ludogorets III
85%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
5%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
59%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
6%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
87%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
61%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
19%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
15%
level
20%
Ludogorets III scores more
65%

Ludogorets III at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Lokomotiv Ruse 0–1 Ludogorets III

Ludogorets III beat Lokomotiv Ruse 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Rousse.