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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 0
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
9/24/2022Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse48%
×Draw23%
Dunav ot Ruse II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.86
Dunav ot Ruse II
1.42

Lokomotiv Ruse creates 31% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 27 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
70%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Dunav ot Ruse II
77%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
52%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
26%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
55%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
28%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
76%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
41%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
62%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
48%
level
23%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
30%

Lokomotiv Ruse at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lokomotiv Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Ruse vs Dunav ot Ruse II

Lokomotiv Ruse and Dunav ot Ruse II drew 0-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.