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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Dorostol — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dorostol
Dorostol
3/30/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 21Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse36%
×Draw24%
Dorostol40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
1.53
Dorostol
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Dorostol
1.14

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Dorostol
2.19

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Dorostol+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Dorostol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
60%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Dorostol
76%
Draw or Dorostol
64%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
17%
Dorostol wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
20%
Dorostol 1+ goals
80%
Dorostol 2+ goals
48%
Dorostol 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
47%
Dorostol (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Dorostol away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.19 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Dorostol defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dorostol attack 1.14 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
36%
level
24%
Dorostol scores more
40%

Dorostol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dorostol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv Ruse 1 – 2 Dorostol

Dorostol beat Lokomotiv Ruse 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Rousse.