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Lokomotiv Ruse vs Chernomorets Balchik — Third League - Northeast 2018

Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
5/28/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 29Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse12%
×Draw19%
Chernomorets Balchik69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.79
Chernomorets Balchik
2.18

Chernomorets Balchik creates 176% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
0.88
Chernomorets Balchik
2.26

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse
2.10
Chernomorets Balchik
0.70

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par
Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw
31%
Lokomotiv Ruse or Chernomorets Balchik
81%
Draw or Chernomorets Balchik
88%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
4%
Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
55%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
19%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
5%
Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
89%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
64%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
15%
Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.26 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
12%
level
19%
Chernomorets Balchik scores more
69%

Chernomorets Balchik at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Lokomotiv Ruse 0–3 Chernomorets Balchik

Chernomorets Balchik beat Lokomotiv Ruse 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.