Lokomotiv Ruse 2–1 Benkovski Byala: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Ruse

FT

2 – 1

Benkovski Byala

10/14/2018

Third League - Northeast · Round 8Stadion Dunav (Ruse (Rousse))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lokomotiv Ruse61%

×Draw20%

Benkovski Byala20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv RuseExpected goals in this matchBenkovski Byala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.20

Lokomotiv Ruse

2.24

Benkovski Byala

1.20

Lokomotiv Ruse creates 87% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 20 away

0.88

creates per match

0.30

2.10

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Lokomotiv Ruse

0.88

Benkovski Byala

0.30

allows per match

Lokomotiv Ruse

2.10

Benkovski Byala

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Ruse ↓

Benkovski Byala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Ruse or draw

80%

Lokomotiv Ruse or Benkovski Byala

80%

Draw or Benkovski Byala

39%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+

38%

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals

89%

Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals

65%

Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals

38%

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals

70%

Benkovski Byala 2+ goals

34%

Benkovski Byala 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)

76%

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Ruse at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.88 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.24

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv Ruse scores more

61%

level

20%

Benkovski Byala scores more

20%

Lokomotiv Ruse at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lokomotiv Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff