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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
8/10/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 4Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv76%
×Draw16%
Vereya Stara Zagora8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2.29
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.56

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 309% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 16 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.34
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.19

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.94
Vereya Stara Zagora
3.25

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw
92%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Vereya Stara Zagora
84%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
24%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
52%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
90%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
66%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
40%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
43%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
11%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
91%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
76%
level
16%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
8%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Vereya Stara Zagora 3-0 in First League on August 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.