Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Preview

18:15

Septemvri Sofia

7/26/2026

First League · Round 2Stadion Lokomotiv

Big match

46%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

model favours

46%26%28%

Septemvri Sofia score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv46%

×Draw26%

Septemvri Sofia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.50

Septemvri Sofia

1.10

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

1.03

creates per match

0.96

1.25

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.03

Septemvri Sofia

0.96

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.25

Septemvri Sofia

1.96

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv-0.03on par

Septemvri Sofia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Septemvri Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

72%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Septemvri Sofia

74%

Draw or Septemvri Sofia

54%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

23%

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

78%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

44%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

19%

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals

67%

Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals

30%

Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

63%

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.03 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.96 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

46%

level

26%

Septemvri Sofia scores more

28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Septemvri Sofia fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.1 expected)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Balanced

Septemvri Sofia

Balanced

47%Possession47%

76%Pass accuracy78%

8.9Shots8.6

1.05xGBiggest gap1.14

Lokomotiv PlovdivSeptemvri Sofia

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1

Draws

4

Septemvri Sofia

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%

1–02–20–20–13–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Plovdiv

LWWDW

Sofia

DLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv Plovdiv face Septemvri Sofia (First League)

First League returns with Lokomotiv Plovdiv hosting Septemvri Sofia. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Septemvri Sofia at Stadion Lokomotiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Lokomotiv Plovdiv face Septemvri Sofia (First League)