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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Sofia — First League 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
4/3/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv49%
×Draw26%
Lokomotiv Sofia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.47
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.96

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 53% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 88 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.34
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.98

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.94
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.60

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Lokomotiv Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw
75%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Lokomotiv Sofia
74%
Draw or Lokomotiv Sofia
51%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
24%
Lokomotiv Sofia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
43%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv Sofia 1+ goals
62%
Lokomotiv Sofia 2+ goals
25%
Lokomotiv Sofia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
66%
Lokomotiv Sofia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Lokomotiv Sofia away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.60 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Lokomotiv Sofia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Lokomotiv Sofia attack 0.98 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
49%
level
26%
Lokomotiv Sofia scores more
25%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Lokomotiv Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Lokomotiv Sofia 1-0 in First League on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.