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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia — First League 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
5/18/2024First LeagueFirst League · Championship Round - 3Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv35%
×Draw28%
Levski Sofia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.14
Levski Sofia
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 138 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.34
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.94
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw
63%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Levski Sofia
72%
Draw or Levski Sofia
65%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
14%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
32%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
11%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
69%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
33%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
49%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
35%
level
28%
Levski Sofia scores more
37%

Levski Sofia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 in First League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.