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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
5/8/2026First LeagueFirst League · Conference League Group - 33Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv43%
×Draw29%
Arda Kardzhali28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.25
Arda Kardzhali
0.96

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 30% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 120 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.34
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.94
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw
72%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Arda Kardzhali
71%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
57%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
19%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
13%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
62%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
25%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
60%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
43%
level
29%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali

Lokomotiv Plovdiv beat Arda Kardzhali 2-0 in First League on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.