Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

CANC

13:00

Arda Kardzhali

1/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv45%

×Draw27%

Arda Kardzhali28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.00

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.36

Arda Kardzhali

1.00

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.43

creates per match

1.30

0.71

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.43

Arda Kardzhali

1.30

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.71

Arda Kardzhali

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

72%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Arda Kardzhali

73%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

21%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

74%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

39%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

16%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

63%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

26%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

62%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.43 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.30 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

45%

level

27%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff