Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 0–1 Yambol 1915

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yambol 1915

4/25/2026

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II51%

×Draw24%

Yambol 191525%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchYambol 1915

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.11

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.71

Yambol 1915

1.11

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 118 away

1.75

creates per match

1.08

1.15

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.75

Yambol 1915

1.08

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.15

Yambol 1915

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Yambol 1915 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw

75%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Yambol 1915

76%

Draw or Yambol 1915

49%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+

28%

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals

82%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals

51%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals

24%

Yambol 1915 1+ goals

67%

Yambol 1915 2+ goals

30%

Yambol 1915 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

68%

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more

51%

level

24%

Yambol 1915 scores more

25%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff