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Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Sekirovo Rakovski — Third League - Southeast 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
FT
2 – 1
Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
11/11/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II58%
×Draw22%
Sekirovo Rakovski20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.91
Sekirovo Rakovski
1.04

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 56 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.75
Sekirovo Rakovski
0.93

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.15
Sekirovo Rakovski
2.07

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw
80%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Sekirovo Rakovski
78%
Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski
42%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
34%
Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
57%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
30%
Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
65%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
28%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
74%
Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
58%
level
22%
Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
20%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Sekirovo Rakovski

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Sekirovo Rakovski 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Plovdiv Stadium in Plovdiv.