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Lokomotiv Oslo vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Skeid II
Skeid II
8/15/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 16Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lokomotiv Oslo37%
×Draw21%
Skeid II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.88
Skeid II
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.29
Skeid II
2.31

allows per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.74
Skeid II
2.46

finishing

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Oslo ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Oslo or draw
58%
Lokomotiv Oslo or Skeid II
79%
Draw or Skeid II
63%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
19%
Skeid II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
29%
Skeid II 1+ goals
87%
Skeid II 2+ goals
60%
Skeid II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
47%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Oslo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

Skeid II away — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.29 + Skeid II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.88

Skeid II attack 2.31 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
37%
level
21%
Skeid II scores more
42%

Skeid II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Lokomotiv Oslo 5–3 Skeid II

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Skeid II 5-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 15, 2022.

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.