Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lokomotiv Oslo vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hødd II
Hødd II
7/20/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 13Frogner Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lokomotiv Oslo67%
×Draw18%
Hødd II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Oslo
2.42
Hødd II
1.04

Lokomotiv Oslo creates 133% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.77
Hødd II
1.00

allows per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.08
Hødd II
3.08

finishing

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Oslo ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Oslo or draw
85%
Lokomotiv Oslo or Hødd II
82%
Draw or Hødd II
33%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
45%
Hødd II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
91%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
69%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
43%
Hødd II 1+ goals
65%
Hødd II 2+ goals
28%
Hødd II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
82%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Oslo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.77 + Hødd II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.42

Hødd II attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
67%
level
18%
Hødd II scores more
15%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Lokomotiv Oslo 2–1 Hødd II

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Hødd II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Frogner Stadion in Oslo.