Lokomotiv Oslo 1–2 Bodø / Glimt II: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Oslo

FT

1 – 2

Bodø / Glimt II

9/12/2021

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 6Tørteberg kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lokomotiv Oslo76%

×Draw13%

Bodø / Glimt II10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv OsloExpected goals in this matchBodø / Glimt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.20

1.15

Lokomotiv Oslo

3.20

Bodø / Glimt II

1.15

Lokomotiv Oslo creates 178% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

2.35

creates per match

0.90

1.40

allows per match

4.05

creates per match

Lokomotiv Oslo

2.35

Bodø / Glimt II

0.90

allows per match

Lokomotiv Oslo

1.40

Bodø / Glimt II

4.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Bodø / Glimt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Oslo ↓

Bodø / Glimt II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Oslo or draw

90%

Lokomotiv Oslo or Bodø / Glimt II

87%

Draw or Bodø / Glimt II

24%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+

57%

Bodø / Glimt II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals

96%

Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals

82%

Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals

60%

Bodø / Glimt II 1+ goals

68%

Bodø / Glimt II 2+ goals

32%

Bodø / Glimt II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)

88%

Bodø / Glimt II (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Oslo at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Bodø / Glimt II away — creates 0.90, concedes 4.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 2.35 + Bodø / Glimt II defence 4.05 → ÷2 → 3.20

Bodø / Glimt II attack 0.90 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more

76%

level

13%

Bodø / Glimt II scores more

10%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff