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Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Zvezda Perm — Supreme Division Women 2020

Lokomotiv Moskva W
Lokomotiv Moskva W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zvezda Perm
Zvezda Perm
11/7/2020Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 12Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W55%
×Draw27%
Zvezda Perm18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.45
Zvezda Perm
0.70

Lokomotiv Moskva W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W
2.46
Zvezda Perm
0.86

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W
0.54
Zvezda Perm
0.43

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva W ↓

Zvezda Perm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva W or draw
82%
Lokomotiv Moskva W or Zvezda Perm
73%
Draw or Zvezda Perm
45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+
28%
Zvezda Perm wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals
18%
Zvezda Perm 1+ goals
50%
Zvezda Perm 2+ goals
16%
Zvezda Perm 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)
75%
Zvezda Perm (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva W at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.54 · 76 matches

Zvezda Perm away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 2.46 + Zvezda Perm defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

Zvezda Perm attack 0.86 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more
55%
level
27%
Zvezda Perm scores more
18%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Zvezda Perm

Lokomotiv Moskva W beat Zvezda Perm 1-0 in Supreme Division Women on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.