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Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Spartak Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Lokomotiv Moskva W
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Preview
11:00
Spartak Moskva W
Spartak Moskva W
11/7/2026Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 25Sapsan Arena
Big match
38%
Lokomotiv Moskva W
model favours
38%24%38%

Top-of-the-table clash — Lokomotiv Moskva W 4 vs Spartak Moskva W 3

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W38%
×Draw24%
Spartak Moskva W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.53
Spartak Moskva W
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W
2.46
Spartak Moskva W
2.50

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva W
0.54
Spartak Moskva W
0.60

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par
Spartak Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva W ↓

Spartak Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva W or draw
62%
Lokomotiv Moskva W or Spartak Moskva W
76%
Draw or Spartak Moskva W
62%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Moskva W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals
20%
Spartak Moskva W 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Moskva W 2+ goals
45%
Spartak Moskva W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)
50%
Spartak Moskva W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva W at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.54 · 76 matches

Spartak Moskva W away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 2.46 + Spartak Moskva W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.53

Spartak Moskva W attack 2.50 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more
38%
level
24%
Spartak Moskva W scores more
38%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Lokomotiv Moskva W win just 41% against the top half (vs 79% against the bottom)
  • Spartak Moskva W win just 39% against the top half (vs 94% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DDWLW
W
LDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv Moskva W host Spartak Moskva W

November 7, 2026: Lokomotiv Moskva W take on Spartak Moskva W in Supreme Division Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv Moskva W host Spartak Moskva W at Sapsan Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.