Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1–1 Zenit U20: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

FT

1 – 1

Zenit U20

2/26/2021

Youth Championship · Round 15Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U2040%

×Draw25%

Zenit U2035%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchZenit U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.35

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

1.48

Zenit U20

1.35

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

2.16

0.53

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

1.63

Zenit U20

2.16

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

0.53

Zenit U20

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Zenit U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 ↓

Zenit U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or draw

65%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or Zenit U20

75%

Draw or Zenit U20

60%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+

19%

Zenit U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals

77%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals

43%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals

19%

Zenit U20 1+ goals

74%

Zenit U20 2+ goals

39%

Zenit U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Zenit U20 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 1.63 + Zenit U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zenit U20 attack 2.16 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more

40%

level

25%

Zenit U20 scores more

35%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff