Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3–0 Ufa U20: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

FT

3 – 0

Ufa U20

12/2/2020

Youth Championship · Round 12Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U2065%

×Draw21%

Ufa U2014%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchUfa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.75

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

1.94

Ufa U20

0.75

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 159% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 40 away

1.63

creates per match

0.97

0.53

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

1.63

Ufa U20

0.97

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20

0.53

Ufa U20

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 ↓

Ufa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or draw

86%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or Ufa U20

79%

Draw or Ufa U20

35%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+

40%

Ufa U20 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals

86%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals

58%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals

30%

Ufa U20 1+ goals

53%

Ufa U20 2+ goals

17%

Ufa U20 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

83%

Ufa U20 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 1.63 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.94

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more

65%

level

21%

Ufa U20 scores more

14%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff