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Lokomotiv Moskva U20 vs Orenburg U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
PST
00:00
Orenburg U20
Orenburg U20
3/20/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 23Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U2062%
×Draw23%
Orenburg U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.73
Orenburg U20
0.72

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 140% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.63
Orenburg U20
0.91

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.53
Orenburg U20
1.82

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par
Orenburg U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 ↓

Orenburg U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or draw
85%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or Orenburg U20
77%
Draw or Orenburg U20
38%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
35%
Orenburg U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
25%
Orenburg U20 1+ goals
51%
Orenburg U20 2+ goals
16%
Orenburg U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Orenburg U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Orenburg U20 away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 1.63 + Orenburg U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Orenburg U20 attack 0.91 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
62%
level
23%
Orenburg U20 scores more
15%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 face Orenburg U20 (Youth Championship)

Youth Championship returns with Lokomotiv Moskva U20 hosting Orenburg U20. Match starts March 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 host Orenburg U20 at Sapsan Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.