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Lokomotiv Moskva U20 vs Krasnodar U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
FT
1 – 2
Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
11/10/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 16Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U2047%
×Draw25%
Krasnodar U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.54
Krasnodar U20
1.11

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.63
Krasnodar U20
1.70

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.53
Krasnodar U20
1.45

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par
Krasnodar U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 ↓

Krasnodar U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or draw
73%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 or Krasnodar U20
75%
Draw or Krasnodar U20
53%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
24%
Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
20%
Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
67%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
30%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Krasnodar U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 1.63 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.70 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
47%
level
25%
Krasnodar U20 scores more
27%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1–2 Krasnodar U20

Krasnodar U20 beat Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.