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Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Rostov U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rostov U19
Rostov U19
8/22/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 20Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U1945%
×Draw23%
Rostov U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.79
Rostov U19
1.46

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 77 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
2.27
Rostov U19
1.96

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
0.96
Rostov U19
1.32

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par
Rostov U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 ↓

Rostov U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or draw
68%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or Rostov U19
77%
Draw or Rostov U19
55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+
24%
Rostov U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals
53%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals
26%
Rostov U19 1+ goals
77%
Rostov U19 2+ goals
43%
Rostov U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Rostov U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.96 · 79 matches

Rostov U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.32 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 2.27 + Rostov U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rostov U19 attack 1.96 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
Rostov U19 scores more
32%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Rostov U19

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 and Rostov U19 drew 0-0 in Youth Championship on August 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.