Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1–0 Kuban U19: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kuban U19

8/12/2022

Youth Championship · Round 6Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U1951%

×Draw25%

Kuban U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Moskva U19Expected goals in this matchKuban U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.98

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

1.56

Kuban U19

0.98

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 14 away

2.27

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

2.27

Kuban U19

1.00

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

0.96

Kuban U19

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par

Kuban U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 ↓

Kuban U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or draw

76%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or Kuban U19

75%

Draw or Kuban U19

49%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+

26%

Kuban U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals

46%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals

21%

Kuban U19 1+ goals

62%

Kuban U19 2+ goals

26%

Kuban U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Kuban U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.96 · 79 matches

Kuban U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 2.27 + Kuban U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kuban U19 attack 1.00 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more

51%

level

25%

Kuban U19 scores more

24%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff