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Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Khimki U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Khimki U20
Khimki U20
11/11/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U1961%
×Draw20%
Khimki U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
2.24
Khimki U20
1.16

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 42 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
2.27
Khimki U20
1.36

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19
0.96
Khimki U20
2.21

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par
Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 ↓

Khimki U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or draw
81%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or Khimki U20
80%
Draw or Khimki U20
39%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+
39%
Khimki U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals
38%
Khimki U20 1+ goals
69%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
32%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.96 · 79 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 2.27 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.24

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more
61%
level
20%
Khimki U20 scores more
19%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Khimki U20

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 beat Khimki U20 5-1 in Youth Championship on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.