Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3–0 Dinamo Moskva U19

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moskva U19

8/23/2024

Youth Championship · Championship Round - 1Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U1956%

×Draw21%

Dinamo Moskva U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Moskva U19Expected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.27

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

2.08

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.27

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 82 away

2.27

creates per match

1.59

0.96

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

2.27

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.59

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

0.96

Dinamo Moskva U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 ↓

Dinamo Moskva U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or draw

77%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 or Dinamo Moskva U19

79%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva U19

44%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+

33%

Dinamo Moskva U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals

87%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals

61%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals

34%

Dinamo Moskva U19 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Moskva U19 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Moskva U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Dinamo Moskva U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.96 · 79 matches

Dinamo Moskva U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 2.27 + Dinamo Moskva U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.08

Dinamo Moskva U19 attack 1.59 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more

56%

level

21%

Dinamo Moskva U19 scores more

23%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff