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Lokomotiv Moscow vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
12/3/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow34%
×Draw27%
Zenit Saint Petersburg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.23
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.69
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.64

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.02
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.78

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
61%
Lokomotiv Moscow or Zenit Saint Petersburg
73%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
66%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
15%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
35%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
13%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
74%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
38%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
47%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.64 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
34%
level
27%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
39%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Lokomotiv Moscow 3–1 Zenit Saint Petersburg

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 3-1 in Premier League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.