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Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin — Cup 2019

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rubin
Rubin
11/1/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow65%
×Draw21%
Rubin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.94
Rubin
0.77

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 152% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
2.00
Rubin
0.60

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
0.95
Rubin
1.87

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
Rubin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Rubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
86%
Lokomotiv Moscow or Rubin
79%
Draw or Rubin
35%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
39%
Rubin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
30%
Rubin 1+ goals
54%
Rubin 2+ goals
18%
Rubin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
82%
Rubin (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Rubin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 2.00 + Rubin defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rubin attack 0.60 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
65%
level
21%
Rubin scores more
14%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rubin

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Rubin 3-0 in Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.