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Lokomotiv Moscow vs Orenburg — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Orenburg
Orenburg
9/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow55%
×Draw23%
Orenburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.79
Orenburg
1.04

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 72% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 91 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.69
Orenburg
1.05

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.02
Orenburg
1.89

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
78%
Lokomotiv Moscow or Orenburg
77%
Draw or Orenburg
45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
31%
Orenburg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
53%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
26%
Orenburg 1+ goals
65%
Orenburg 2+ goals
28%
Orenburg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
71%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Orenburg attack 1.05 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
55%
level
23%
Orenburg scores more
22%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moscow vs Orenburg

Orenburg beat Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 in Premier League on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.