Lokomotiv Moscow 1–0 Orenburg: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moscow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Orenburg

Aleksey Miranchuk 38'

6/21/2020

Premier League · Round 23RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow55%

×Draw23%

Orenburg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv MoscowExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.79

Orenburg

1.04

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 72% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 91 away

1.69

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.69

Orenburg

1.05

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.02

Orenburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw

78%

Lokomotiv Moscow or Orenburg

77%

Draw or Orenburg

45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

31%

Orenburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

83%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

53%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

26%

Orenburg 1+ goals

65%

Orenburg 2+ goals

28%

Orenburg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

71%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Orenburg attack 1.05 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

55%

level

23%

Orenburg scores more

22%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

59

Aleksey Miranchuk

Lokomotiv Moscow · M

9.0

Match Events

19'

R. Zhemaletdinov

38'

Aleksey Miranchuk↳ R. Zhemaletdinov

41'

D. Miskic

45+4'

R. Zhemaletdinov

45+4'

R. Zhemaletdinov

46'

J. Fameyeh← V. Shakhov

52'

57'

58'

58'

62'

D. Lipovoy← F. Černych

64'

70'

71'

79'

80'

82'

A. Chukanov← T. Ayupov

84'

84'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivOrenburg

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots10

5Corners2

9Fouls20

Shots

23Total Shots10

6On Target1

11Off Target6

6Blocked3

13Inside Box7

10Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

496Total Passes272

433Accurate Passes193

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls20

4Yellow Cards9

1Red Cards2

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moscow vs Orenburg

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Orenburg 1-0 in Premier League on June 21, 2020.

Goals: Aleksey Miranchuk (38').

Lokomotiv Moscow controlled possession (64%) and registered 23 shots to 10.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Orenburg — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moscow vs Orenburg