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Lokomotiv Moscow vs Lazio — UEFA Europa League 2018

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
11/25/2021UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group E - 5RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow31%
×Draw28%
Lazio41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.09
Lazio
1.30

Lazio creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
0.33
Lazio
0.93

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.67
Lazio
1.86

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
59%
Lokomotiv Moscow or Lazio
72%
Draw or Lazio
69%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
12%
Lazio wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
66%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
30%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
10%
Lazio 1+ goals
73%
Lazio 2+ goals
37%
Lazio 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
43%
Lazio (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Lazio away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 0.33 + Lazio defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Lazio attack 0.93 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
31%
level
28%
Lazio scores more
41%

Lazio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moscow vs Lazio

Lazio beat Lokomotiv Moscow 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on November 25, 2021.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.