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Lokomotiv Moscow vs FC Urartu — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
E. Piloyan 76' (OG)
2/5/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Jebel Ali Centre of Excellence artificial field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow60%
×Draw19%
FC Urartu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
2.37
FC Urartu
1.32

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 80% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
2.36
FC Urartu
2.00

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
0.64
FC Urartu
2.38

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
FC Urartu+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

FC Urartu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
80%
Lokomotiv Moscow or FC Urartu
81%
Draw or FC Urartu
40%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
39%
FC Urartu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
91%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
42%
FC Urartu 1+ goals
73%
FC Urartu 2+ goals
38%
FC Urartu 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
75%
FC Urartu (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

FC Urartu away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 2.36 + FC Urartu defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.37

FC Urartu attack 2.00 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
60%
level
19%
FC Urartu scores more
20%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
46'
D. Kulikov← V. Rakov
58'
A. Miranchuk← M. Glushenkov
58'
M. Mitaj← I. Ignatjev
58'
K. Maradishvili← N. Tiknizyan
58'
S. Pinyaev← M. Shchetinin
76'
E. PiloyanOwn goal
81'
Lokomotiv
FC
A. Fedorov
Manager: A. Fedorov
46'▲D. Kulikov←▼V. Rakov
58'▲A. Miranchuk←▼M. Glushenkov
58'▲M. Mitaj←▼I. Ignatjev
58'▲K. Maradishvili←▼N. Tiknizyan
58'▲S. Pinyaev←▼M. Shchetinin
D. Gunko
Manager: D. Gunko

Friendlies Clubs: Lokomotiv Moscow 1–0 FC Urartu

Lokomotiv Moscow beat FC Urartu 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 5, 2023.

Goals: E. Piloyan (76' o.g.).

The match was played at Jebel Ali Centre of Excellence artificial field in Dubai.