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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
FT
4 – 1
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
3/22/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 17Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra65%
×Draw19%
Etar VT II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.21
Etar VT II
0.96

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 130% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.06
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.06
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw
85%
Lokomotiv Mezdra or Etar VT II
81%
Draw or Etar VT II
35%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
42%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
38%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
62%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
25%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
81%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
65%
level
19%
Etar VT II scores more
15%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Etar VT II

Lokomotiv Mezdra beat Etar VT II 4-1 in Third League - Northwest on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Mezdra.