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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
11/19/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 15Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra57%
×Draw22%
Botev Vratsa II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.94
Botev Vratsa II
1.11

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 75% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 61 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.06
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.06
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw
79%
Lokomotiv Mezdra or Botev Vratsa II
78%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
43%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
33%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
30%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
67%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
30%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
72%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
57%
level
22%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
21%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Botev Vratsa II

Lokomotiv Mezdra beat Botev Vratsa II 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Mezdra.