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Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Zvyahel — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Lokomotiv Kyiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zvyahel
Zvyahel
11/24/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 19Stadion KNUBA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lokomotiv Kyiv29%
×Draw23%
Zvyahel48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.31
Zvyahel
1.75

Zvyahel creates 34% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.67
Zvyahel
2.55

allows per match

Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.95
Zvyahel
0.95

finishing

Lokomotiv Kyiv+0.00on par
Zvyahel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Kyiv ↓

Zvyahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Kyiv or draw
52%
Lokomotiv Kyiv or Zvyahel
77%
Draw or Zvyahel
71%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Kyiv wins by 2+
12%
Zvyahel wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Kyiv 1+ goals
73%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 2+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv Kyiv 3+ goals
14%
Zvyahel 1+ goals
83%
Zvyahel 2+ goals
52%
Zvyahel 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Kyiv (draw refunded)
38%
Zvyahel (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Kyiv at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

Zvyahel away — creates 2.55, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Kyiv attack 1.67 + Zvyahel defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zvyahel attack 2.55 + Lokomotiv Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv Kyiv scores more
29%
level
23%
Zvyahel scores more
48%

Zvyahel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zvyahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–2 Zvyahel

Zvyahel beat Lokomotiv Kyiv 2-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion KNUBA in Kyiv.