Lokomotiv Gomel 2–1 Zhodino Yuzhnoe: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Gomel

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

9/24/2023

1. Division · Round 25Stadyen Lakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel46%

×Draw23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv GomelExpected goals in this matchZhodino Yuzhnoe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.50

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.84

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.50

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 23% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 16 away

2.00

creates per match

1.94

1.07

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

2.00

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.94

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.07

Zhodino Yuzhnoe

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Zhodino Yuzhnoe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

Zhodino Yuzhnoe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw

68%

Lokomotiv Gomel or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

77%

Draw or Zhodino Yuzhnoe

54%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

25%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

84%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

55%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

28%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 1+ goals

78%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 2+ goals

44%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

59%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

Zhodino Yuzhnoe away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + Zhodino Yuzhnoe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Zhodino Yuzhnoe attack 1.94 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

46%

level

23%

Zhodino Yuzhnoe scores more

32%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff