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Lokomotiv Gomel vs Ruh Brest — 1. Division 2018

Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
10/30/20191. Division1. Division · Round 23Stadyen Lakamatyu (Homel' (Gomel))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel32%
×Draw23%
Ruh Brest45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.43
Ruh Brest
1.75

Ruh Brest creates 22% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
2.00
Ruh Brest
2.43

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.07
Ruh Brest
0.86

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw
55%
Lokomotiv Gomel or Ruh Brest
77%
Draw or Ruh Brest
68%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+
14%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals
76%
Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals
17%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
83%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
52%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)
41%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more
32%
level
23%
Ruh Brest scores more
45%

Ruh Brest at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Gomel vs Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Lokomotiv Gomel 2-0 in 1. Division on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Lakamatyu (Homel' (Gomel)).