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Lokomotiv Gomel vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
8/28/20221. Division1. Division · Round 16Stadyen Lakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel38%
×Draw23%
ML Vitebsk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.70
ML Vitebsk
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 45 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
2.00
ML Vitebsk
2.36

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel
1.07
ML Vitebsk
1.40

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw
61%
Lokomotiv Gomel or ML Vitebsk
77%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
62%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+
20%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals
51%
Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals
24%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
82%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
51%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)
50%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more
38%
level
23%
ML Vitebsk scores more
39%

ML Vitebsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Lokomotiv Gomel 2–1 ML Vitebsk

Lokomotiv Gomel beat ML Vitebsk 2-1 in 1. Division on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen Lakamatyu in Gomel.