Lokomotiv Gomel 3–2 ABFF U17: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Gomel

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

ABFF U17

D. Krivosheev 61'

E. Azerskiy 56', 36'

A. Ryzhchenko 75' (OG)

D. Ovsyannikov 3'

6/22/2024

1. Division · Round 12Stadyen Lakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel55%

×Draw23%

ABFF U1722%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv GomelExpected goals in this matchABFF U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.06

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.82

ABFF U17

1.06

Lokomotiv Gomel creates 72% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.06

1.07

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

2.00

ABFF U17

1.06

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.07

ABFF U17

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

ABFF U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

ABFF U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw

78%

Lokomotiv Gomel or ABFF U17

77%

Draw or ABFF U17

45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

31%

ABFF U17 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

84%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

54%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

27%

ABFF U17 1+ goals

65%

ABFF U17 2+ goals

29%

ABFF U17 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

71%

ABFF U17 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

ABFF U17 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + ABFF U17 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

ABFF U17 attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

55%

level

23%

ABFF U17 scores more

22%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

D. Ovsyannikov

36'

E. Azerskiy

46'

G. Sereda← G. Mishin

46'

V. Skomarovskiy← D. Volskiy

56'

S. Zhivushko← P. Bezrukov

56'

E. Azerskiy

61'

D. Krivosheev

65'

B. Gusev← V. Skomarovskiy

65'

V. Pulkach← D. Ovsyannikov

75'

A. RyzhchenkoOwn goal

76'

D. Emelyanov← A. Krasnov

76'

S. Krivorot← P. Markov

82'

N. Starostenko← E. Azerskiy

90'

A. Ryzhchenko

90+3'

E. Telepnev← D. Krivosheev

Lokomotiv

ABFF

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

Krivoshee

Kirko

⚽2

▼

Azerskiy

▼

Krasnov

Manager: A. Morozov

76'▲D. Emelyanov←▼A. Krasnov

76'▲S. Krivorot←▼P. Markov

82'▲N. Starostenko←▼E. Azerskiy

90+3'▲E. Telepnev←▼D. Krivosheev

Lokomotiv Gomel substitutes

EmelyanovKrivorotStarostenkoTelepnevGinkoKuzmenokMalitskiy

Manager: P. Evseenko

46'▲G. Sereda←▼G. Mishin

46'▲V. Skomarovskiy←▼D. Volskiy

56'▲S. Zhivushko←▼P. Bezrukov

65'▲B. Gusev←▼V. Skomarovskiy

65'▲V. Pulkach←▼D. Ovsyannikov

ABFF U17 substitutes

SeredaSkomarovskiyZhivushkoGusevPulkachRobakStruk

1. Division: Lokomotiv Gomel 3–2 ABFF U17

Lokomotiv Gomel beat ABFF U17 3-2 in 1. Division on June 22, 2024.

Goals: D. Ovsyannikov (3'), E. Azerskiy (36', 56'), D. Krivosheev (61'), A. Ryzhchenko (75' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadyen Lakamatyu in Gomel.

Lokomotiv Gomel vs ABFF U17 — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Lokomotiv Gomel 3–2 ABFF U17