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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Yantra Polski Trambesh — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
11/5/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 14Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa72%
×Draw16%
Yantra Polski Trambesh12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.60
Yantra Polski Trambesh
0.95

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 174% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 99 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.40

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.12

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Yantra Polski Trambesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
88%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Yantra Polski Trambesh
84%
Draw or Yantra Polski Trambesh
28%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
51%
Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
92%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
73%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
47%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
61%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
25%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
86%
Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.12 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.60

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 1.40 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
72%
level
16%
Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
12%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 4–2 Yantra Polski Trambesh

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Yantra Polski Trambesh 4-2 in Third League - Northwest on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.