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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Pomorie — Second League 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
3 – 0
Pomorie
Pomorie
5/1/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa61%
×Draw23%
Pomorie15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.75
Pomorie
0.74

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 136% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.17
Pomorie
0.47

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.02
Pomorie
2.33

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Pomorie+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Pomorie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
85%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Pomorie
77%
Draw or Pomorie
39%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
35%
Pomorie wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
52%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
25%
Pomorie 1+ goals
52%
Pomorie 2+ goals
17%
Pomorie 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
80%
Pomorie (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

Pomorie away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 1.17 + Pomorie defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pomorie attack 0.47 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
61%
level
23%
Pomorie scores more
15%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Pomorie

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Pomorie 3-0 in Second League on May 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.