Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–2 Hebar 1918

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hebar 1918

K. D'Almeida 37'

T. Chavorski 78'

G. Valchev 76'

3/7/2026

Second League · Round 23Lokomotiv stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa39%

×Draw27%

Hebar 191834%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaExpected goals in this matchHebar 1918

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.27

Hebar 1918

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 56 away

1.17

creates per match

1.29

1.02

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.17

Hebar 1918

1.29

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.02

Hebar 1918

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Hebar 1918 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw

66%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Hebar 1918

73%

Draw or Hebar 1918

61%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+

17%

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals

36%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals

14%

Hebar 1918 1+ goals

69%

Hebar 1918 2+ goals

32%

Hebar 1918 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)

54%

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.02 · 59 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 1.17 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hebar 1918 attack 1.29 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more

39%

level

27%

Hebar 1918 scores more

34%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Mihaylov

28'

G. Stanimirov

37'

K. D'Almeida

46'

T. Chavorski← S. Malamov

53'

V. Lyubenov

54'

M. Ivanov

56'

V. Dimitrov

73'

D. Kanchev← A. Chakarov

73'

R. Nepeypiev← A. Petrov

75'

D. Kanchev

76'

I. Vasilev← K. D'Almeida

76'

78'

79'

80'

80'

81'

K. Hristov← E. Simons De Fanti

90+3'

S. Kamenov← I. Tilev

90+3'

K. Pavlov← D. Aleksandrov

Lokomotiv

Hebar

21

▼

Malamov

11

▼

Aleksandr

9

▼

Petrov

33

▼

27

29

7

20

17

⚽

99

55

16

5

11

▼

15

4

19

26

29

77

▼

Chakarov

20

⚽

▼

D'Almeida

1

Dimitrov

73'▲D. Kanchev←▼A. Chakarov

76'▲I. Vasilev←▼K. D'Almeida

81'▲K. Hristov←▼E. Simons De Fanti

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa substitutes

12Milushev7Roemer8Hristov9Vasilev10Kanchev14Bharti21Savov27Tsachev

Manager: Nikolay Mitov

46'▲T. Chavorski←▼S. Malamov

73'▲R. Nepeypiev←▼A. Petrov

90+3'▲S. Kamenov←▼I. Tilev

90+3'▲K. Pavlov←▼D. Aleksandrov

Hebar 1918 substitutes

1Gruev19Dadakov18Pergelov2Kamenov14Velchev10Chavorski77Pavlov24Nepeypiev23Kostov

Match Recap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Hebar 1918

Hebar 1918 beat Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2-1 in Second League on March 7, 2026.

Goals: K. D'Almeida (37'), G. Valchev (76'), T. Chavorski (78').

The match was played at Lokomotiv stadium in Gorna Orjahovica.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Hebar 1918 — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Hebar 1918