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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
11/11/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 14Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa59%
×Draw21%
Dunav Lom20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.04
Dunav Lom
1.11

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 84% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
80%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Dunav Lom
79%
Draw or Dunav Lom
41%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
35%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
87%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
60%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
33%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
67%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
30%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
74%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
59%
level
21%
Dunav Lom scores more
20%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Dunav Lom

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Dunav Lom 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.