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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Drenovets
Drenovets
3/30/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 21Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa82%
×Draw12%
Drenovets6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.83
Drenovets
0.64

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 342% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
94%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Drenovets
88%
Draw or Drenovets
18%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
62%
Drenovets wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
94%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
53%
Drenovets 1+ goals
47%
Drenovets 2+ goals
14%
Drenovets 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
93%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.83

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
82%
level
12%
Drenovets scores more
6%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Drenovets

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Drenovets 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.