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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
7 – 1
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
4/27/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 25Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa83%
×Draw12%
Boruna Tsareva livada6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.85
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.61

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 367% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
94%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Boruna Tsareva livada
88%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
17%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
63%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
94%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
53%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
46%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
13%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
94%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.85

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
83%
level
12%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
6%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 7–1 Boruna Tsareva livada

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Boruna Tsareva livada 7-1 in Third League - Northwest on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.