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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Arda Kardzhali — Second League 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
3/18/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Stadion Lokomotiv (Gorna Oryahovitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa32%
×Draw29%
Arda Kardzhali39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.04
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

Arda Kardzhali creates 13% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.21
Arda Kardzhali
1.27

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.06
Arda Kardzhali
0.87

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
61%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Arda Kardzhali
71%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
68%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
12%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
9%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
69%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
33%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
45%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.06 · 77 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 1.21 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.04

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.27 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
32%
level
29%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
39%

Arda Kardzhali at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Arda Kardzhali

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Arda Kardzhali 2-0 in Second League on March 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv (Gorna Oryahovitsa).