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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
CANC
00:00
Tryavna
Tryavna
3/29/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 17Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo63%
×Draw20%
Tryavna17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.19
Tryavna
1.05

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 39 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
83%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Tryavna
80%
Draw or Tryavna
37%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
40%
Tryavna wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
64%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
37%
Tryavna 1+ goals
65%
Tryavna 2+ goals
28%
Tryavna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
79%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.19

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
63%
level
20%
Tryavna scores more
17%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv Dryanovo host Tryavna

March 29, 2020: Lokomotiv Dryanovo take on Tryavna in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo host Tryavna at Stadion Lokomotiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.