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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Spartak Pleven — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
FT
0 – 1
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
3/14/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 21Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo24%
×Draw23%
Spartak Pleven53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.11
Spartak Pleven
1.78

Spartak Pleven creates 60% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 48 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Spartak Pleven
2.08

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Spartak Pleven
0.75

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
47%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Spartak Pleven
77%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
76%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
9%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
67%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
30%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
10%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
83%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
53%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
31%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.75 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Spartak Pleven defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.11

Spartak Pleven attack 2.08 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
24%
level
23%
Spartak Pleven scores more
53%

Spartak Pleven at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv Dryanovo 0–1 Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dryanovo.